You all have probably heard of the now-infamous Facebook event encouraging people to ‘raid Area 51’ on the claim that they ‘can’t stop all of us’, as if the most powerful military in the world can’t stop a horde of unarmed Millenials charging into the most guarded base in America. So far, two million people have signed up for the event, with another one million still checking if getting gunned down by an M134 machine gun fits into their schedule.

So obviously this trend isn’t at its prime, but as we move closer to September 20th, a looming question presents itself; what will happen? Will the raiders actually make it in? Will they all be shot by guards? Or will they simply get turned down at the door? Here are my predictions.

60% chance: Hardly anybody shows up

This is the most likely outcome. Most of the people who joined the event, including the person who made it, saw it as a joke. In the end, the event might be known only for the countless memes it has spawned. Although a few might take it seriously and show up, a handful of civilians definitely can’t raid a high-security military base. It’s actually quite funny to think that after all this hype, the only thing that will come out of it is six disappointed shmucks who just wasted their money on plane tickets to Nevada.

10%: Everybody dies

Even if the sizable group of people shows up for the raid, Area 51 is still the most secure military base in the country, and there is very little probability that a large group of civilians would be able to get it without being shot by security forces.

As this video from The Infographics Show explains, security at the site consists of multiple rings. Storming the first few rings will lead to being detained and most likely imprisoned, but anyone infiltrating the inner rings will be shot without hesitation. Keep in mind that Area 51 was built during the Cold War to test experimental weapons and aircraft, and was designed to handle full-scale military incursions, so a horde of unarmed civilians will not pose any real threat.

20%: Everybody gets arrested

While there might be people stupid enough to raid a highly-classified Air Force base, most people take threats of hostile force seriously, so it is more likely than not that the raiders wouldn’t cross into the lethal area, and are all rounded up by guards. This could also occur if the invading force ends up being small enough to detain before they even have an opportunity. This solution would also be better received publicly, for obvious reasons.

5%: Complete standstill

Hold on, what was that about the press? Let’s backtrack a little; we have about 2 million unarmed civilians protesting against a military which could easily shoot them all on the spot.

While there are many differences, this situation could end up a lot like Tiananmen Square if the government decides to use force on the raiders. While currently, journalists are seeing the raiders as the villains, the whole situation could turn around if 2 million civilians are massacred. Though the probability is low, the government could take this into consideration and refrain from using deadly force. This situation would end up in a standstill, with the raiders too scared to advance further and the guards too scared to shoot them. this might be the one situation where the raiders actually defeat the government, which is subliminally what the whole event is about; defying the government.

5%: The raiders get in

Imagine yourself as one of the raiders in this outcome. You and your comrades run towards the base, triggering a plethora of alarms. Expecting security forces to mobilize, the guards instead let you pass. When you come across a locked door, one of the guards unlocks it for you. You pinch yourself. This must be a dream, you think. Eventually, you make your way into the main building, and you find… nothing. The most mysterious government facility in the country… hiding nothing but dust and cobwebs. That’s when the truth hits. Everything that was inside, everything that you came for, experimental aircraft, energy weapons, UFOs, time machines, Shrek 5… has been shipped out to the other bases.

This is why you don’t give the Air Force 2 months preparation.

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